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Law of Small Numbers
"Specifically, because of a false belief called the 'law of small numbers,' people attribute negative serial correlation to an identical and independently distributed stochastic process."
Shefrin (2001) [book]
Top 10 Papers
TVERSKY, A. and D. KAHNEMAN, 1993. Belief in the law of small numbers . A handbook for data analysis in the behavioral sciences: …. [Cited by 841 ] (54.54/year)
RABIN, M., 2002. Inference By Believers in the Law of Small Numbers* . Quarterly Journal of Economics. [Cited by 142 ] (22.12/year)
QUATTRONE, G.A. and E.E. JONES, 1980. … perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [Cited by 106 ] (3.73/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L. and J.E. HUNTER, 1978. MODERATOR RESEARCH AND THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1 . Personnel Psychology. [Cited by 36 ] (1.18/year)
GUY, R.K., 1988. The strong law of small numbers . American Mathematical Monthly. [Cited by 24 ] (1.18/year)
WHITAKER, L., 1914. ON THE POISSON LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS . Biometrika. [Cited by 24 ] (0.25/year)
FALK, M., J. HüSLER and R.D. REISS, 2004. Laws Of Small Numbers: Extremes And Rare Events . books.google.com. [Cited by 96 ] (21.72/year)
KONTOYIANNIS, I., P. HARREMOES and O. JOHNSON, 2005. Entropy and the law of small numbers . Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on. [Cited by 16 ] (4.68/year)
KAHNEMAN, D. and A. TVERSKY, 1971. Belief in the law of small numbers . Psychological Bulletin. [Cited by 13 ] (0.35/year)
KEREN, G. and C. LEWIS, 1994. The Two Fallacies of Gamblers: Type I and Type II . ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES. [Cited by 55 ] (3.81/year)
Bibliograpgy
BAESLER, E.J. and J.K. BURGOON, 1994. The Temporal Effects of Story and Statistical Evidence on Belief Change . COMMUNICATION RESEARCH. [Cited by 55 ] (3.81/year)
BAQUERO, G. and M. VERBEEK, Do Sophisticated Investors Believe in the Law of Small Numbers? . papers.ssrn.com. [Cited by 5 ] (?/year)
BAR-HILLEL, M. and W.A. WAGENAAR, 1993. The perception of randomness . A Handbook for Data Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences: …. [Cited by 69 ] (4.47/year)
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BURNS, B.D., 2002. Does the law of small numbers explain the gambler's fallacy . [Cited by 4 ] (0.62/year)
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BUSCHE, K. and P. KENNEDY, 1984. ON ECONOMISTS'BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS . Economic Inquiry. [Cited by 8 ] (0.33/year)
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CRATHORNE, A.R., THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS1 . jstor.org. [Cited by 4 ] (?/year)
CSISZAR, I., 1997. Information Theoretic Methods in Probability and Statistics . IEEE INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON INFORMATION THEORY. [Cited by 20 ] (1.75/year)
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FALK, M., J. HüSLER and R.D. REISS, 2004. Laws Of Small Numbers: Extremes And Rare Events . books.google.com. [Cited by 96 ] (21.72/year)
FINGER, M.S. and D.S. ONES, 1999. Psychometric Equivalence of the Computer and Booklet Forms of the MMPI: A Meta-Analysis . PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT. [Cited by 31 ] (3.29/year)
FISCHHOFF, B., 2003. Hindsight? foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty* . Quality and Safety in Health Care. [Cited by 749 ] (138.20/year)
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GARFIELD, J., 2002. The challenge of developing statistical reasoning . Journal of Statistics Education. [Cited by 51 ] (7.94/year)
GAWANDE, A., 1999. The cancer-cluster myth . The New Yorker. [Cited by 17 ] (1.80/year)
GILOVICH, T., R. VALLONE and A. TVERSKY, 1985. The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences . Cognitive Psychology. [Cited by 374 ] (15.97/year)
GRETHER, D.M., 1980. Bayes rule as a descriptive model: the representativeness heuristic . Quart. J. Econ. [Cited by 158 ] (5.56/year)
GUINOTE, A., C.M. JUDD and M. BRAUER, 2002. Effects of Power on Perceived and Objective Group Variability: Evidence That More Powerful Groups … . JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY. [Cited by 50 ] (7.79/year)
GUY, R.K., 1988. The strong law of small numbers . American Mathematical Monthly. [Cited by 24 ] (1.18/year)
GUY, R.K., 2007. The Second Strong Law of Small Numbers . [Cited by 4 ] (2.82/year)
HARREMOES, P., O. JOHNSON and I. KONTOYIANNIS, 2007. Thinning and the Law of Small Numbers . Information Theory, 2007. ISIT 2007. IEEE International …. [Cited by 4 ] (2.82/year)
HOUGHTON, S.M., et al. , 2000. No Safety in Numbers: Persistence of Biases and Their Effects on Team Risk Perception and Team … . Group & Organization Management. [Cited by 31 ] (3.68/year)
HSU, L.M., 1989. Random sampling, randomization, and equivalence of contrasted groups in psychotherapy outcome … . Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. [Cited by 38 ] (1.96/year)
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JEFFREY, R., 1983. Bayesianism with a Human Face . Testing Scientific Theories, Minnesota Studies in the …. [Cited by 42 ] (1.65/year)
KACHELMEIER, S.J. and W.F. MESSIER, 1990. An investigation of the influence of a nonstatistical decision aid on auditor sample size decisions. The Accounting Review. [Cited by 56 ] (3.04/year)
KAHNEMAN, D., 2003. A Psychological Perspective on Economics . American Economic Review. [Cited by 108 ] (19.93/year)
KAHNEMAN, D. and A. TVERSKY, 1971. Belief in the law of small numbers . Psychological Bulletin. [Cited by 13 ] (0.35/year)
KAHNEMAN, D., I. RITOV and D. SCHKADE, 1999. Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues . Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. [Cited by 197 ] (20.91/year)
KAREEV, Y., 1995. Through a narrow window: working memory capacity and the detection of covariation . Cognition. [Cited by 51 ] (3.80/year)
KEH, H.T., M.D. FOO and B.C. LIM, 2002. Opportunity Evaluation under Risky Conditions: The Cognitive Processes of Entrepreneurs . Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. [Cited by 71 ] (11.06/year)
KEREN, G. and C. LEWIS, 1994. The Two Fallacies of Gamblers: Type I and Type II . ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES. [Cited by 55 ] (3.81/year)
KONTOYIANNIS, I., P. HARREMOES and O. JOHNSON, 2005. Entropy and the law of small numbers . Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on. [Cited by 16 ] (4.68/year)
KRUEGER, J. and R.W. CLEMENT, 1994. The Truly False Consensus Effect: An Ineradicable and Egocentric Bias in Social Perception . JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY. [Cited by 116 ] (8.04/year)
LEBOVIC, J.H., 2002. The Law of Small Numbers: Deterrence and National Missile Defense . Journal of Conflict Resolution. [Cited by 3 ] (0.47/year)
LEE, H., F. ACITO and R.L. DAY, 1987. Evaluation and use of marketing research by decision makers: a behavioral simulation. Journal of Marketing Research. [Cited by 28 ] (1.31/year)
LILIENFELD, S.O., 2002. When Worlds Collide: Social Science, Politics, and the Rind et al.(1998) Child Sexual Abuse Meta- … . AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGIST. [Cited by 50 ] (7.79/year)
LOEHLE, C., 1987. Hypothesis Testing in Ecology: Psychological Aspects and the Importance of Theory Maturation . Quarterly Review of Biology. [Cited by 74 ] (3.45/year)
MAINES, L.A., 1996. An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination . International Journal of Forecasting. [Cited by 32 ] (2.58/year)
MATHEWS, A.M., et al. , 1. Psychophysiological approaches to the investigation of desensitization and related procedures. . content.apa.org. [Cited by 38 ] (?/year)
MATTHEW, R., 2002. Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers,". Quarterly Journal of Economics. [Cited by 4 ] (0.62/year)
MCGONIGLE, D.J., et al. , 2000. Variability in fMRI: An Examination of Intersession Differences . Neuroimage. [Cited by 166 ] (19.72/year)
METZ, K.E., Plenary Papers. WHY SAMPLING WORKS OR WHY IT CAN'T: IDEAS OF YOUNG CHILDREN ENGAGED IN RESEARCH OF THEIR OWN DESIGN . [Cited by 10 ] (?/year)
MITCHELL, R.K., et al. , 2002. Toward a Theory of Entrepreneurial Cognition: Rethinking the People Side of Entrepreneurship … . Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. [Cited by 118 ] (18.38/year)
MOORE, D.S., 1997. New Pedagogy and New Content: The Case of Statistics . International Statistical Review. [Cited by 192 ] (16.81/year)
MULLEN, B. and L.T. HU, 1989. Perceptions of Ingroup and Outgroup Variability: A Meta-Analytic Integration . Basic and Applied Social Psychology. [Cited by 104 ] (5.36/year)
MURAKI, N., 2001. Monotonic Independence, Monotonic Central Limit Theorem and Monotonic Law of Small Numbers . INFINITE DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS QUANTUM PROBABILITY AND …. [Cited by 38 ] (5.12/year)
NEWBOLD, E.M., 1927. Practical applications of the statistics of repeated events, particularly to industrial accidents. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. [Cited by 44 ] (0.54/year)
NISBETT, R.E., et al. , 1993. The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning . Rules for Reasoning. [Cited by 259 ] (16.80/year)
ODLYZKO, A.M. and H.S. WILF, 1988. The editor's corner: n coins in a fountain. Amer. Math. Monthly. [Cited by 18 ] (0.88/year)
PARK, B. and M. ROTHBART, 1982. Perception of out-group homogeneity and levels of social categorization: Memory for the subordinate … . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [Cited by 188 ] (7.12/year)
PERDUE, C.W., et al. , 1990. Us and them: Social categorization and the process of intergroup bias . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [Cited by 149 ] (8.09/year)
QUATTRONE, G.A. and E.E. JONES, 1980. … perception of variability within in-groups and out-groups: Implications for the law of small numbers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [Cited by 106 ] (3.73/year)
RABIN, M., 2002. Inference By Believers in the Law of Small Numbers* . Quarterly Journal of Economics. [Cited by 142 ] (22.12/year)
REDELMEIER, D.A., S.H. TAN and G.L. BOOTH, 1998. The Treatment of Unrelated Disorders in Patients with Chronic Medical Diseases . New England Journal of Medicine. [Cited by 264 ] (25.34/year)
ROGERS, P., 1998. The Cognitive Psychology of Lottery Gambling: A Theoretical Review . Journal of Gambling Studies. [Cited by 31 ] (2.98/year)
SALMASI, A., et al. , 1991. On the system design aspects of code division multiple access (CDMA) applied to digital cellular and … . Vehicular Technology Conference, 1991.'Gateway to the Future …. [Cited by 166 ] (9.53/year)
SANITIOSO, R. and Z. KUNDA, 1991. Ducking the collection of costly evidence: Motivated use of statistical heuristics . Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. [Cited by 18 ] (1.03/year)
SATTATH, S. and A. TVERSKY, 2004. On the Relation between Common and Distinctive Feature Models . Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings. [Cited by 26 ] (5.88/year)
SCHEFFER, L. and E. NEQUIST, 2000. Why interconnect prediction doesn't work . Proceedings of the 2000 international workshop on System- …. [Cited by 29 ] (3.44/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L., 1996. Statistical significance testing and cumulative knowledge in psychology: Implications for training … . Psychological Methods. [Cited by 482 ] (38.81/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L. and J.E. HUNTER, 1978. MODERATOR RESEARCH AND THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1 . Personnel Psychology. [Cited by 36 ] (1.18/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L. and J.E. HUNTER, 1977. Development of a general solution to the problem of validity generalization . Journal of Applied Psychology. [Cited by 249 ] (7.92/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L. and J.E. HUNTER, 1984. A WITHIN SETTING EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE SITUATIONAL SPECIFICITY HYPOTHESIS IN PERSONNEL SELECTION . Personnel Psychology. [Cited by 14 ] (0.57/year)
SCHMIDT, F.L. and J.E. HUNTER, 1980. THE FUTURE OF CRITERION-RELATED VALIDITY 1 . Personnel Psychology. [Cited by 16 ] (0.56/year)
SEDLMEIER, P. and G. GIGERENZER, 1997. Intuitions About Sample Size: The Empirical Law of Large Numbers . Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. [Cited by 40 ] (3.50/year)
SEDLMEIER, P. and G. GIGERENZER, 1989. Do studies of statistical power have an effect on the power of studies . Psychological Bulletin. [Cited by 248 ] (12.77/year)
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TIROLE, J., 2002. Rational irrationality: Some economics of self-management . European Economic Review. [Cited by 64 ] (9.97/year)
TVERSKY, A., Kahneman. D.(1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin. [Cited by 6 ] (?/year)
TVERSKY, A. and D. KAHNEMAN, 1974. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases . Science. [Cited by 6305 ] (183.18/year)
TVERSKY, A. and D. KAHNEMAN, 1993. Belief in the law of small numbers . A handbook for data analysis in the behavioral sciences: …. [Cited by 841 ] (54.54/year)
TVERSKY, A., et al. , 1982. Representativeness-Belief in the Law of Small Numbers. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge …. [Cited by 4 ] (0.15/year)
VITOUCH, O. and J. GLüCK, ‘‘Small Group PETting:''Sample Sizes in Brain Mapping Research . doi.wiley.com. [Cited by 9 ] (?/year)
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WHITAKER, L., 1914. ON THE POISSON LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS . Biometrika. [Cited by 24 ] (0.25/year)
WILSON, E.B. and M.H. BURKE, 1942. The Epidemic Curve . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. [Cited by 17 ] (0.26/year)